Value bets explained

A value bet is a price higher than the outcome's fair chance deserves. It does not mean the bet is likely to win. A 5/1 shot can be good value and still lose most of the time.

How we estimate a fair price

We do not have a view on who will win. We use the market itself:

1. Take the average price per outcome across all sportsbooks we track.
2. Convert each average into an implied chance.
3. Remove the margin so the chances add up to 100%.
4. The result is our estimate of each outcome's fair chance.

A worked example

Average prices of 2.00, 3.50 and 3.80 imply 50.0%, 28.6% and 26.3%, which total 104.9%. Removing the margin gives fair chances of 47.7%, 27.2% and 25.1%. The fair price of the first outcome is 1 ÷ 0.477 = 2.10.

If one sportsbook offers 2.20 on it, the edge is 2.20 × 0.477 − 1 = +4.9%. On those numbers, each $100 staked at that price would return about $4.90 more than it cost, averaged over a very large number of identical bets.

Why the edge is only an estimate

• The consensus can be wrong. It is an average of opinions, not the truth.
• Prices move. A price can be gone by the time you reach the sportsbook.
• A stale price may reflect news the market already knows, such as an injury.
• Our prices are only as fresh as our last update, shown on each table.
• Sportsbooks can limit the stakes they accept from customers.

Reading the Value bets page

Each row shows the selection, the price, the fair price and the edge. Use the minimum edge filter to narrow the list. A bigger edge is not automatically better, because large gaps often mean one price is out of date or about to be corrected.

A positive edge is a long-run estimate, not a prediction. Even with a real edge, you can lose for long stretches, so only bet what you can afford to lose. Betting is not a way to make money, and you should stop if it stops being fun.